Is a Brokered GOP Convention Possible?

Recently, the question spiraling around the mainstream media and the political establishment is: Will the GOP nomination for president end up with a brokered convention? There are many reasons why the Republicans in the government would want a brokered convention, but none of them speak louder than their distaste for the frontrunner, Donald Trump. Trump has consistently led in the polls from the time he launched his campaign, and now the establishment is in panic mode because they are running out of time to block a Trump nomination. The only people that can be blamed for the situation the GOP is in is themselves; instead of taking Trump seriously from the start, the Republican establishment figured he would fade on his own, but that has not happened and it appears Mr. Trump is headed for an inevitable nomination. However, there is one theory that could prevent a Trump nomination for the Republican party: a brokered convention. Also known as a contested convention, this scenario would occur if none of the GOP candidates for president accumulated enough delegates to win the nomination, thus creating a giant floor fight to decide the winner (Source). Now, this would only happen if a candidate does not have enough delegates to secure the nomination by the time the convention rolls around in July.

One of the biggest advocates for a contested convention is Mitt Romney, whom has somewhat of a feud going on with Donald Trump. Earlier this month, Mitt Romney openly criticized whether Trump has the temperament and record to justify nominating him for the presidency.

Romney explicitly stated: “If we Republicans choose Donald Trump as our nominee, the prospects for a safe and prosperous future are greatly diminished” (Source).

Romney certainly did not mince words when asked about his feelings toward Donald Trump, which shows how far the Republican party has sunk. Right now, their only hope of getting a candidate into office that they want is Marco Rubio or John Kasich. A Rubio or Kasich nomination, under the conditions of a contested convention, are extremely unlikely considering neither have won more than 1 US state. Although the odds are stacked against them, there may be some hope for a potential contested convention: Rubio and Kasich must win their home states of Florida and Ohio, respectively. Again, this is unlikely to occur because Trump is enormously ahead in the delegate count plus Rubio is currently behind Trump in the Florida polls. Kasich has a good chance to beat Trump in Ohio, but that is not enough to stall a Trump nomination if Rubio does not win Florida. Florida holds a massive delegate count and unless Rubio does something drastic by tomorrow, I do not see him winning Florida. I may be wrong, but the results will tell the story tomorrow.

One may wonder why I did not mention Ted Cruz as a possible nominee and the reason is this: the Republican establishment favors Trump over Cruz despite Trump’s widespread opposition. Simply put, Cruz can only win the nomination unless it is outright and he receives the number of delegates needed to secure the nomination since the establishment would rather back Trump than Cruz at a contested convention. Therefore, is it possible the GOP nomination for president enters a contested convention? The answer is yes, it is possible. If Trump immensely falters combined with Rubio and Trump winning their home states, then who knows, it just may happen. My gut tells me that it will not happen, though. Trump is too far ahead in terms of delegate numbers and the odds are completely against Rubio and Kasich to overcome their consistently low numbers. Furthermore, imagine if Trump won the popular vote, but did not win the nomination. The United States is a democracy that represents the people, so if Trump won the popular vote and not the nomination then the democracy the government prides itself on would be immediately called into question. Would this be Bush v. Gore 2.0?

Contributed by R.A.


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